Buzdar may not be much, in terms of governance, or performance, or even presentation – but he is everything PM Khan needs to ensure his tricky triple balance in Punjab. This equilibrium has necessitated the appointment of Usman Buzdar as chief minister – a ridiculous choice that is redeemable only if one understands that any other choice would have already produced a change in government at the centre. Second, PM Khan has bet on an unequal and unstable political equilibrium in Punjab as a necessary instrument of his sustaining the power to fight and win the next general election (most likely in 2023). But if PM Khan manages to register better than expected growth, he will have pulled off a small heist with a big potential political payoff in 2022-2023. Where Tarin will generate the forex needed to sustain this growth-at-all-costs approach is a mystery – given the hardball that the Biden Administration seems to want to play with Pakistan. Pakistan’s current account deficit is growing and without US dollar denominated, concessional gap financing, the growth story will barely begin before it begins to asphyxiate in the absence of US dollars. The early returns from this approach are also not surprising. I am a big fan, as I was in 2016, when Ishaq Dar had delivered the same thing. First, PM Khan has bet on Shaukat Tarin’s growth-above-all approach to the economy.
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